When AA and JJ collide preflop, the higher pocket pair AA is roughly a 81.5% favorite — a fast, high-variance confrontation poker players call a 'flip'. Neither hand has meaningful outs against the other until someone hits a set or better.
AA vs JJ Win Probability
When AA and JJ collide preflop, the higher pocket pair AA is roughly a 81.5% favorite — a fast, high-variance confrontation poker players call a 'flip'. Neither hand has meaningful outs against the other until someone hits a set or better.
Across 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations, AA wins 81.5% of the time and JJ wins 18%, with the pot split 0.5% of the time. This is calculated by dealing all remaining cards randomly through the river and tallying the results.
Both hands are held fixed while the remaining cards are dealt randomly 30,000 times, recording a winner each time. The margin of error versus the true probability is typically within ±0.3 percentage points.
Over the long run, the hand with higher equity profits from repeating this spot. In an actual game you'll also need to factor in stack sizes, your opponent's range, and tournament ICM — this calculator shows pure card-vs-card probability only.
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